The Trade
Demand Index

A monthly read on where skilled-trade labor is scarce and where the pay follows. Built entirely from public government statistics and openly-licensed data — no listings, no advertising.

Data through June 2026 · Provisional
BLSCensusIndeed Hiring LabProjections CentralBEAO*NET
How the index is built →
Trade
National TDI
69/ 100
Median wage
$69k
10-yr projected growth
+13%
States in shortage
18of 50
01 · The map

Shortage signal, by state

Each tile is a state, shaded by how tight the market is for Electrical — postings and structural pressure measured against the local workforce. Select a state to rank its trades below.

DC
Shortage signalSurplusBalancedTighteningShortageCritical
Tightest markets
Electrical · top 10 states
02 · The roundup

Most in-demand
trades in Texas

Change state

Ranked by state TDI. Wage is adjusted to local cost of living, so a lower headline number can still mean more take-home.

1
ElectricalBALANCED
TDI
66.5
COL-adj wage
$60k
10-yr growth
+18%
2
General ContractingTIGHTENING
TDI
65.2
COL-adj wage
$104k
10-yr growth
+15%
3
HVACBALANCED
TDI
61.5
COL-adj wage
$59k
10-yr growth
+17%
4
PlumbingBALANCED
TDI
60.3
COL-adj wage
$61k
10-yr growth
+13%
5
Fire ProtectionSHORTAGE
TDI
53.8
COL-adj wage
$59k
10-yr growth
+13%
6
SolarBALANCED
TDI
53
COL-adj wage
$49k
10-yr growth
+21%
7
Pool & SpaTIGHTENING
TDI
51.8
COL-adj wage
$48k
10-yr growth
+17%
8
Windows & DoorsBALANCED
TDI
48.8
COL-adj wage
$49k
10-yr growth
+12%
9
FlooringSURPLUS
TDI
47.7
COL-adj wage
$44k
10-yr growth
+12%
10
Garage DoorsBALANCED
TDI
45.2
COL-adj wage
$49k
10-yr growth
+17%
11
LandscapingTIGHTENING
TDI
44.2
COL-adj wage
$37k
10-yr growth
+17%
12
Appliance RepairTIGHTENING
TDI
41.9
COL-adj wage
$50k
10-yr growth
+8%
13
Cleaning & RestorationTIGHTENING
TDI
41.1
COL-adj wage
$34k
10-yr growth
+15%
14
Pest ControlTIGHTENING
TDI
40.6
COL-adj wage
$38k
10-yr growth
+19%
15
PaintingBALANCED
TDI
39
COL-adj wage
$46k
10-yr growth
+9%
16
RoofingBALANCED
TDI
37.2
COL-adj wage
$47k
10-yr growth
+11%
17
Concrete & MasonrySURPLUS
TDI
36.6
COL-adj wage
$48k
10-yr growth
+4%
18
FencingBALANCED
TDI
31.9
COL-adj wage
$38k
10-yr growth
+10%
19
InsulationSURPLUS
TDI
31.2
COL-adj wage
$50k
10-yr growth
+6%
20
LocksmithTIGHTENING
TDI
26.3
COL-adj wage
$45k
10-yr growth
+5%
03 · The calculator

Trade vs. college,
net of debt

Cumulative earnings minus outstanding debt, from age 18, starting from Electrical’s real median wage. The trade path earns from day one; the degree path pays tuition first, then catches up — sometimes. Move the sliders.

Trade starting wage$48k
Grad starting salary$58k
Tuition & costs / yr$24k
Assumes 4-yr degree, 6% loan interest, 18% of income to repayment, 3%/yr raises. Trade path: apprentice ramp yrs 1–4, journeyman after.
Trade at age 30
$625k
Degree at age 30
$449k
Trade ahead by
$176k
Age 18Age 24Age 30
Trade path4-yr degreeTrade leads through age 30
04 · The movers

Monthly movers · shareable

Auto-rendered from the biggest Shortage Signal swings this month. Two export sizes for the trade press and social.

SQUARE · 1080 × 1080
Trade Demand Index monthly movers — square
STORY · 1080 × 1920
Trade Demand Index monthly movers — story
Methodology

The Trade Demand Index blends state construction-market momentum (construction employment and building permits from BLS and the Census Bureau, plus job-postings momentum from Indeed Hiring Lab), projected 10-year growth (Projections Central), workforce age and apprenticeship throughput, and wages adjusted for cost of living (BEA RPP). Scores are percentile-ranked 0–100 across the full panel and updated monthly. Market momentum is measured for the state, so it reads the same for every trade in it — the per-trade posting signal returns when our CareerOneStop application clears. Full writeup: the methodology page.

Sources
BLS CES via FRED · State construction employment, seasonally adjusted
Census BPS via FRED · Private housing units authorized by permit
Indeed Hiring Lab · State job-postings index, all sectors (CC BY 4.0)
BLS OES · Occupational wages and employment
Projections Central · State 10-year occupational growth
BEA RPP · Regional price parities (cost-of-living adjustment)
O*NET · Task composition behind automation durability

This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. This product uses Census Bureau data but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau. Employment, wage, and price data are published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Job-postings data is published by Indeed Hiring Lab under CC BY 4.0. The Trade Demand Index is TradeAtlas’s own derivative product; no source above endorses it or is responsible for how we combine their data.

Status

Data through June 2026. Figures are computed from public government statistics and openly-licensed data under methodology v0.2. Government series publish on a lag, which is why the latest month shown trails the calendar. Marked provisional while two structural inputs (workforce age, apprenticeship throughput) remain unavailable at state granularity, and while market momentum is measured at state rather than trade level.

© 2026 TradeAtlas · Built for the people who build.