TradeAtlas

The Trade
Demand Index

A monthly read on where skilled-trade labor is scarce and where the pay follows. Built from public wage, openings, and projection data — no listings, no advertising.

July 2026 · Provisional
AdzunaBLS OESProjections CentralBEA RPPO*NET
How the index is built →
Trade
National TDI
63/ 100
Median wage
$69k
10-yr projected growth
+13%
States in shortage
18of 50
01 · The map

Shortage signal, by state

Each tile is a state, shaded by how tight the market is for Electrical — postings and structural pressure measured against the local workforce. Select a state to rank its trades below.

DC
Shortage signalSurplusBalancedTighteningShortageCritical
Tightest markets
Electrical · top 10 states
02 · The roundup

Most in-demand
trades in Texas

Change state

Ranked by state TDI. Wage is adjusted to local cost of living, so a lower headline number can still mean more take-home.

1
FlooringCRITICAL
TDI
69.2
COL-adj wage
$44k
10-yr growth
+12%
2
HVACTIGHTENING
TDI
67.1
COL-adj wage
$59k
10-yr growth
+17%
3
ElectricalTIGHTENING
TDI
66.3
COL-adj wage
$60k
10-yr growth
+18%
4
SolarTIGHTENING
TDI
63.1
COL-adj wage
$49k
10-yr growth
+21%
5
General ContractingBALANCED
TDI
62.9
COL-adj wage
$104k
10-yr growth
+15%
6
Fire ProtectionBALANCED
TDI
61.7
COL-adj wage
$59k
10-yr growth
+13%
7
PlumbingTIGHTENING
TDI
60.3
COL-adj wage
$61k
10-yr growth
+13%
8
Windows & DoorsSURPLUS
TDI
58.5
COL-adj wage
$49k
10-yr growth
+12%
9
RoofingSHORTAGE
TDI
56.1
COL-adj wage
$47k
10-yr growth
+11%
10
LandscapingBALANCED
TDI
54.5
COL-adj wage
$37k
10-yr growth
+17%
11
Appliance RepairCRITICAL
TDI
52.4
COL-adj wage
$50k
10-yr growth
+8%
12
InsulationTIGHTENING
TDI
50.1
COL-adj wage
$50k
10-yr growth
+6%
13
Pest ControlBALANCED
TDI
47.5
COL-adj wage
$38k
10-yr growth
+19%
14
Pool & SpaSHORTAGE
TDI
43
COL-adj wage
$48k
10-yr growth
+17%
15
Garage DoorsSURPLUS
TDI
42
COL-adj wage
$49k
10-yr growth
+17%
16
LocksmithBALANCED
TDI
37.4
COL-adj wage
$45k
10-yr growth
+5%
17
FencingBALANCED
TDI
36.6
COL-adj wage
$38k
10-yr growth
+10%
18
PaintingTIGHTENING
TDI
36.1
COL-adj wage
$46k
10-yr growth
+9%
19
Concrete & MasonryBALANCED
TDI
35.7
COL-adj wage
$48k
10-yr growth
+4%
20
Cleaning & RestorationBALANCED
TDI
32.2
COL-adj wage
$34k
10-yr growth
+15%
03 · The calculator

Trade vs. college,
net of debt

Cumulative earnings minus outstanding debt, from age 18, starting from Electrical’s real median wage. The trade path earns from day one; the degree path pays tuition first, then catches up — sometimes. Move the sliders.

Trade starting wage$48k
Grad starting salary$58k
Tuition & costs / yr$24k
Assumes 4-yr degree, 6% loan interest, 18% of income to repayment, 3%/yr raises. Trade path: apprentice ramp yrs 1–4, journeyman after.
Trade at age 30
$625k
Degree at age 30
$449k
Trade ahead by
$176k
Age 18Age 24Age 30
Trade path4-yr degreeTrade leads through age 30
04 · The movers

Monthly movers · shareable

Auto-rendered from the biggest Shortage Signal swings this month. Two export sizes for the trade press and social.

No movers yet for July 2026. This is the index’s first full-panel issue — month-over-month comparison needs a prior period to diff against. Movers start appearing the month after this one (see the monthly workflow in docs/trades-demand-index-plan.md §Phase F).
Methodology

The Trade Demand Index blends job-posting intensity (Adzuna) against the local employed workforce (BLS OES), projected 10-year growth (Projections Central), workforce age and apprenticeship throughput, and wages adjusted for cost of living (BEA RPP). Scores are percentile-ranked 0–100 across the full panel and updated monthly. Full writeup: the methodology page.

Sources
Adzuna · postings
BLS OES · wages, employment
Projections Central · growth
BEA RPP · cost of living
O*NET · automation durability
Status

July 2026. Figures are computed from real government and Adzuna data under methodology v0.1 (anchored against BLS/JOLTS — see the methodology page). Marked provisional while two structural inputs (workforce age, apprenticeship throughput) remain unavailable at state granularity.

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